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A common thread seems to be linking China’s aggressive military modernization, espionage in Russia and theft in Libya.
Senior U.S. officials say some of Libya’s top Russian-made SA-24 light, man-portable air defense systems (Manpads) are missing. Russian investigators, meanwhile, have charged a Chinese national with trying to buy classified data about the Russian-made, long-range, high-altitude, SA-20 heavy anti-aircraft system.
“There are ringing indicators that some Manpads—type nonspecific—have left the country,” says Army Gen. Carter Ham, chief of Africa Command.
There are lots of empty SA-24 (Russian nomenclature 9K338 Igla-S) shipping crates left in Libyan warehouses. U.S. officials are investigating whether they had been emptied before the conflict—which could indicate clandestine sales to the black market or a third country—or were among the many weapons carried off by looters as thefts of opportunity.
In Moscow, Russian officials say they have detained a possible Chinese spy who tried to obtain designs of the advanced SA-20 as part of Beijing’s efforts to modernize its weaponry. The SA-20 system (Russian designation S‑300PMUU2 Favorit) has advanced electronically scanned radars that increase detection ranges by 2-3 times, say U.S. experts. In recent years, Russia reversed its proposed sale of the SA-20 to Iran after international protest against proliferation of the missile.
The arrested man worked as an interpreter for visiting Chinese officials, and made attempts to buy documentation for the S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile system, says an Associated Press report. Arrested nearly a year ago, the Chinese national faces up to 20 years in jail if convicted. Prosecutors submitted the case to the Moscow city court last week.
As for the Libya mystery, U.S. officials are still confused about why the country’s stockpile of new, advanced SA-24 Manpads were not fired at NATO aircraft during the battle to oust Moammar Gadhafi. The weapons are perhaps the most sophisticated, light, anti-aircraft missiles made by Russia, and they are certainly the most sought-after by insurgents shopping the black market.
“We don’t understand why they weren’t used,” says Ham. Possible answers are that the Manpads were not issued to the troops and never left their warehouses, that the troops were never trained to use the new weapon, or that they were missing parts or were in some other way not yet ready for combat.
The first question is how many SA‑24s and other Manpads there were originally. “A State Department-led Manpads task force has been operating for a couple of months with neighboring countries to make sure that border security is addressing this concern,” says Ham. “It’s very clear to me that [Libya’s] national transitional council recognizes that concern . . . and its responsibility to regain [possession] of those [weapons] that have fallen outside of government control. Everything is on the table [including] a buy-back program.”
U.S. intelligence also has determined that the “original losses were not planned” thefts by insurgents or black marketeers.
To help track down stolen weapons and prevent other looters from entering Libya will require intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft, in particular the long-endurance unmanned aerial systems (UAS).
So far, “given the missions that Africa Command has been handed, we’ve had the necessary ISR to accomplish them,” says Ham. “[UAS] has been principally [operational] in East Africa and more recently with heavy emphasis in Libya and the Sahel region [south of the Sahara, where interest is] focused on how Al Qaida is getting its hands on the Islamic Maghreb,” an Islamic radical militia with its origins in Algeria.
“The near-term challenge, as NATO contemplates concluding Operation Unified Protector [in Libya], is: How many of those [ISR assets] do I need to keep?” Ham asks. “How much of the Libya mission set comes back to Africa Command? We’re going through that drill right now.”
In the near term, because of the threat of weapons proliferation and the interim government’s interest in securing Libya’s borders, “we’ll have a sustained U.S. ISR presence at least for the next several months [to aid in monitoring] the arms-trafficking routes,” says Ham. Another important issue is emerging requirements, he adds. “The challenge is access, overflight and bases. We are reliant on host nations to provide that.”
For decades, Beijing has been a top buyer of Russian weapons, including aircraft and submarines. Chinese developers often combine old Soviet platforms with new Chinese technology. For example, Beijing’s first aircraft carrier, unveiled in August, is a refurbished Soviet ship.
This year, China’s military budget grew 12.7% to $91.5 billion, the largest in the world after the U.S.
In early September, two professors of a military academy in St. Petersburg were charged with selling Russian military secrets to China. And in 2007, four Russian defense officials were sentenced to up to 11 years in jail for selling missile technologies to Beijing for $2 million.
And let's get one thing straight. There's a big difference between a pilot and an aviator. One is a technician; the other is an artist in love with flight. — E. B. Jeppesen
