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The Ukrainian Invasion

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miamiair (netAirspace FAA) 05 Apr 22, 12:38Post
Starting on the 24th of February, we have witnessed the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. We have seen the destruction of the only flyable An-225. And we have also seen how a supposed powerhouse of military might, has been crippled by MANPADs and Fire & Forget Anti-Armor weapons. Drones being used as anti-material weapons.

Videos abound of destroyed Russian aircraft, aircraft getting hit and auguring in.

We have the story, whether true or not, of the Ghost of Kyiv, who became an ace in a day.

One thing is certain, this conflict will re-write military doctrine.
And let's get one thing straight. There's a big difference between a pilot and an aviator. One is a technician; the other is an artist in love with flight. — E. B. Jeppesen
DXing 06 Apr 22, 00:12Post
It certainly showed the Russian Army to be a paper tiger. These were supposedly the creme de la creme of their service. The most highly trained and equipped forces. Yet they allowed their armor to bunch up going through a village and thus be taken out rather piecemeal, their aircraft evidently followed the same routes in and out multiple times thus allowing the Ukrainians to set up anti air ambushes. Their only success came with standoff weapons fired from inside Russia or from the Black Sea.

For certain the tactics, command and control, and especially logistics of their invasion will be studied as a "how not too" for years to come. I had thought that given the weight of numbers the Ukrainians would be like the 300 Spartans against the Persian Army but they turned out to be more like David facing Goliath.

Unfortunately, NATO and the United States in particular have turned out to be timid friends at best. Not willing to supply the Ukrainians with the weapons that, at this point, could drive the Russians completely out of their country. Russia is a nuclear power but I'm not sure that even Putin could order a successful launch. Pretty sure that would be the straw that would break the camels back and clear tossing him out of power.
What's the point of an open door policy if inside the open door sits a closed mind?
ANCFlyer (netAirspace ATC & Founding Member) 06 Apr 22, 11:46Post
DXing wrote:
Unfortunately, NATO and the United States in particular have turned out to be timid friends at best.


Whilst I would like to see NATO go boiling into Russia all guns blazing, I think - at this point - they're playing the game appropriately if not timidly. More to consider here other than the Ruskies . . . and their nuclear option.

We would truly have WW3 if NATO decided to push forward with more than they have already committed. And that scenario will not end well for anyone, regardless of their loyalties, capabilities or location.
LET'S GO BRANDON!!!!
Mark 06 Apr 22, 14:17Post
ANCFlyer wrote:We would truly have WW3 if NATO decided to push forward with more than they have already committed.


{check}
Commercial aircraft flown in: B712 B722 B732 B734 B737 B738 B741 B742 B744 B752 B753 B762 B772 A310 A318 A319 A320 A321 DC91 DC93 DC94 DC1030 DC1040 F100 MD82 MD83 A223 CR2 CR7 E175
halls120 (Plank Owner) 09 Apr 22, 13:17Post
DXing wrote:
Unfortunately, NATO and the United States in particular have turned out to be timid friends at best. Not willing to supply the Ukrainians with the weapons that, at this point, could drive the Russians completely out of their country. Russia is a nuclear power but I'm not sure that even Putin could order a successful launch. Pretty sure that would be the straw that would break the camels back and clear tossing him out of power


Wrong. When the dust settles and the inventories of what the US and NATO countries have provided Ukraine - both in terms of material and other assistance - can be revealed, you will see just how non-timid NATO partners have been. There is a reason why the Russians have been calling this a proxy war with the US.

Pep is right. We are being very careful so as to not trigger uncontrollable escalation, and our assistance has been and is anything but timid.
We don't lose friends - fake ones are exposed
Mark 09 Apr 22, 14:30Post
My spidey sense says that many countries have been privately and quietly sneaking goodies to the Ukrainian military and the Ukranian underground. It's happened before in other skirmishes and there's no reason to suspect it's not happening now.
Commercial aircraft flown in: B712 B722 B732 B734 B737 B738 B741 B742 B744 B752 B753 B762 B772 A310 A318 A319 A320 A321 DC91 DC93 DC94 DC1030 DC1040 F100 MD82 MD83 A223 CR2 CR7 E175
captoveur 11 Apr 22, 16:55Post
I think this has been the wake-up call the NATO allies have needed since 1991 to not neglect their defense spending. I am looking for big things coming in the future when the economies pick back up.
I like my coffee how I like my women: Black, bitter, and preferably fair trade.
DXing 12 Apr 22, 00:22Post
halls120 wrote:
Wrong. When the dust settles and the inventories of what the US and NATO countries have provided Ukraine - both in terms of material and other assistance - can be revealed, you will see just how non-timid NATO partners have been. There is a reason why the Russians have been calling this a proxy war with the US.


Yeah........no. When the dust settles the inventories of what the U.S. will have provided Ukraine may prove that the U.S., might have stepped up but at this point the material assistance given allows the Ukrainians to "hang on" but not much more.

In the run up to the war and in the initial week everyone, from Biden, to SECDEF Austin, to General Mark Milley, to a bunch of pundits had written the Ukrainians off. I thought, and said here, that I thought they would be like the 300 Spartans, putting up a good fight but losing in the end to Russia's sheer weight of numbers. Thanks in part to the Russian military's completely inept battle plan, as well as some very smart tactics by the Ukrainians playing on their home turf, and a President that could school our President on leadership every day of the week and twice on Sunday, they've done fantastically well given the weak military support from the U.S. and NATO.

It has only been in the past week that the Czech's have sent T-72 tanks and BVP's, joined by Germany sending BVP's to the Ukrainians to replace their losses.


https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/45078/ukraine-situation-report-donated-czech-t-72-tanks-bmp-1-armored-vehicles-headed-to-ukraine

There are widespread reports that the Czech government has at least begun moving T-72 tanks and BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles out of storage for transfer to Ukraine. This follows reports over the weekend that the U.S. government would help facilitate the delivery of T-72 tanks from an unspecified NATO member to the Ukrainian armed forces. Last week, the German government had separately approved a request from authorities in the Czech Republic to send ex-East German BMP-1s that they now own to Ukraine.



No other country, including the U.S. has provided that kind of assistance. Switchblade drones, javelins, stingers, and satellite surveillance are nice but won't stop a massed armor attack. The Ukrainians are actually their own best resupplier of armor having captured an estimated 118 working or repairable Russian tanks!

Forbes, citing Oryx, a military website that monitors open-source information on social media to work out losses of military equipment during the war, on Friday said that Ukraine has lost at least 74 tanks since Russia started the war on February 24, but it had captured at least 118 Russian tanks. This means that Ukraine has more tanks than it did at the start of the conflict.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-has-actually-gained-tanks-during-war-while-russia-has-lost-hundreds/ar-AAVtUQf#:~:text=Forbes%2C%20citing%20Oryx%2C%20a%20military%20website%20that%20monitors,it%20had%20captured%20at%20least%20118%20Russian%20tanks.

There are other countries that have old Soviet style equipment, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary, have tanks and armored personnel carriers but of those Slovakia only has a minimal amount and Hungary has forbidden transfers of military equipment to Ukraine as well as any transportation of military equipment transfers across their territory going to Ukraine.

https://finabel.org/the-replacement-of-soviet-era-equipment-in-the-eastern-flank/

In addition, Ukrainian air defense losses are not being made up at the rate they are losing them.

https://www.newsweek.com/nato-anti-aircraft-weapon-donations-not-covering-ukraine-losses-russia-invasion-s-300-1696924

NATO Anti-Aircraft Weapon Donations Aren't Covering Ukraine Losses


The Turks, to their credit, didn't hesitate to send their Bayraktar TB2 UAV into the fight. Several retired military professionals have said that it wouldn't be a big stretch to teach Ukrainians how to handle the now retired MQ-1 Predator which can be equipped with hellfire missiles. The MQ-1 was retired from active USAF duty in 2018 but remains in the surplus inventory. It could easily be trained on then shipped to Ukraine with the caveat that they are only to be used within Ukrainian airspace as defined before the invasion began.


halls120 wrote:Pep is right. We are being very careful so as to not trigger uncontrollable escalation, and our assistance has been and is anything but timid.


There's plenty more the U.S. could be doing but thanks to our forgetful leader and his pack of spineless minions, nothing probably will but the Predator drones, as well as digging up more old soviet style armor would be a big help. The time to stop letting Putin dictate what we can and can't do has come and gone. He is a war criminal and should be treated as such. Only by giving the Ukrainians the types of assistance that can allow them to win, and publicly announcing that as our policy will Putin be forced to really negotiate a peace. This would also have the effect of dampening any designs on the Chinese communists of invading Tiawan and thinking the U.S. would do nothing.

At this point the Ukrainians should be willing to trade the Crimean peninsula for an end to the separatist movement in the Donbas region and reparations for destroyed property both public and private as well as restoration of roads and other infrastructure destroyed by the Russian invasion. In 2008 when I visited the Crimea it was readily apparent that it was mostly people of Russian descent inhabiting it. From the Cossacks living on top of Ai-Petri outside of Yalta, to the Russian Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol to a line of Russian restaurants in Simferopol I was surprised that it had been ceded to Ukraine when the Soviet Union broke up.
What's the point of an open door policy if inside the open door sits a closed mind?
halls120 (Plank Owner) 12 Apr 22, 10:51Post
One of the many things that amuses me about the Internet is that there are no shortage of people who love to offer their "expert" opinion about a given issue as if they actually know everything that is really going on. :)) :)) :))
We don't lose friends - fake ones are exposed
DXing 12 Apr 22, 12:10Post
One of the things that I love about bureaucrats is how they expect ordinary citizens to overlook publicly sourced, independently and multiply verified, facts and figures as well as their own eyes. Rarely do they refute with any facts of their own, they tend to immediately deflect or to present bogus self-serving steaming piles of misinformation. Then you have a tough time, and end up usually having to be rude, getting them to admit they were wrong.

U.S. Gen. Tod Wolters admitted that President Biden's strategy to deter Russia from invading Ukraine failed during testimony before the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday."You as a combatant commander felt that you were part of an inter-agency effort intended to deter Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine?" Gallagher asked.

"That's correct," Wolters responded. "Deter and dissuade."

"Would it be fair to say that deterrence failed in Ukraine?" Gallagher pressed.

"Number one I would say that NATO's solidarity remained," Wolters began, before being cut off by Gallagher pressing for a direct answer to the question.

"I can't argue with your conclusion," Wolters finished.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-commander-biden-deterrence-failed-ukraine-russia

Just the latest in a long line....

Inflation is only temporary.

The government of Afghanistan won't fold easily to the Taliban.

The border surge is seasonal.

Masks and lockdowns work.

It would be humorous if so many people weren't so adversely affected and/or impacted. {sigh} {vsad}
What's the point of an open door policy if inside the open door sits a closed mind?
miamiair (netAirspace FAA) 12 Apr 22, 13:52Post
DXing wrote:One of the things that I love about bureaucrats...



Sssshhhhhhhhhh... People are realizing they were sold a bag of shit with Biden. The full court press hoodwinked a lot of people, some admit it, others still want a bumbling idiot that sniffs little girls instead of mean tweets and $ 1.89/gal gas.
And let's get one thing straight. There's a big difference between a pilot and an aviator. One is a technician; the other is an artist in love with flight. — E. B. Jeppesen
GQfluffy (Database Editor & Founding Member) 12 Apr 22, 14:56Post
And people wonder why the forum is dead.
Teller of no, fixer of everything, friend of the unimportant and all around good guy; the CAD Monkey
ShanwickOceanic (netAirspace FAA) 12 Apr 22, 16:26Post
GQfluffy wrote:And people wonder why the forum is dead.

{check} It was going so well, too...

Suggest move/split to Pol. It's likely impossible to discuss the MilAv aspects of the conflict without getting political, so perhaps this thread would do better there if we're going to discuss like it's there already.
My friend and I applied for airline jobs in Australia, but they didn't Qantas.
DXing 13 Apr 22, 21:19Post
President Biden, over a month after Congress passed at 13.6 billion military assistance bill for Ukraine, and after an almost weekly berating by President Zelenskyy, finally announced today a list of equipment to be sent to Ukraine that will make a difference.

According to the Pentagon, the list of new military hardware includes 155mm howitzer artillery -- a specific request from Ukraine -- 200 M-113 armored personnel carriers, 100 armored humvees, 300 Switchblade drones, and 11 MI-17 helicopters. The U.S. had given Ukraine five helicopters as part of an earlier shipment.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-announces-800m-in-new-military-aid-for-ukraine/ar-AAWbO1D?ocid=uxbndlbing

The artillery also comes with 40,000 rounds.

This is the kind of assistance that's been needed for quite some time. Guess it's better late than never. So out of the 13.6 billion so far the administration has managed to spend 3 billion of it. Time to pick up the pace.
What's the point of an open door policy if inside the open door sits a closed mind?
miamiair (netAirspace FAA) 14 Apr 22, 11:44Post
On another note of bad news for the Russian military, it appears the Black Sea Fleet's flagship, the Moskva has been evacuated after an explosion in the ammunition lockers severely crippled the ship.

Link
And let's get one thing straight. There's a big difference between a pilot and an aviator. One is a technician; the other is an artist in love with flight. — E. B. Jeppesen
ShanwickOceanic (netAirspace FAA) 14 Apr 22, 14:43Post
So, it did what those Ukrainians told it to!
My friend and I applied for airline jobs in Australia, but they didn't Qantas.
paul mcallister 14 Apr 22, 15:06Post
One thing I have noticed is the apparent heavy losses and destruction of armoured vehicles and tanks in particular. Modern hand held portable weapons seem to tear them open like tins of beans.

IMHO this will likely end with Ukraine being split, the east of the country cannot be easily accessed by the western nations, so providing any sort of aid would be difficult to say the least.

I have heard about mercenaries, and even ISIS members being recruited by the Russians in the east, and also it seems chemical weapons are being used by Russia.

Putin has stated before that he would use the nuclear option to preserve Russia, whether his instructions would be followed is debateable.
I think the best outcome we can hope for, is that the others in the Russian government stop Putin, but that is probably a pipe dream.

I am just back from holiday in Cyprus, and the lies being told to the Russian people on their TV stations / online is incredible.
In Cyprus their was 8 Russian TV channels in my hotel, the first week I was there, all had been blocked, but some did work the second week.
They were claiming old footage from Afghanistan showed Russian victories in Ukraine.

I have not seen much credible footage of Russian air power being used, apart from shots early on in the invasion using helicopters.
DXing 15 Apr 22, 10:54Post
ShanwickOceanic wrote:So, it did what those Ukrainians told it to!


{laugh} {laugh} {laugh} I had to think about that!!!

paul mcallister wrote:One thing I have noticed is the apparent heavy losses and destruction of armoured vehicles and tanks in particular. Modern hand held portable weapons seem to tear them open like tins of beans.


I wonder if any of those 40,000 artillery shells are Excaliburs? If so it will be a bad day to be a Russian tank or armored vehicle crewmember or mechanized infantry member.

What's the point of an open door policy if inside the open door sits a closed mind?
miamiair (netAirspace FAA) 15 Apr 22, 11:56Post
Well, the Moskva has been relegated to underwater studies.

Image

Image
And let's get one thing straight. There's a big difference between a pilot and an aviator. One is a technician; the other is an artist in love with flight. — E. B. Jeppesen
GQfluffy (Database Editor & Founding Member) 15 Apr 22, 16:49Post
Fkn Brilliant. {laugh}
Teller of no, fixer of everything, friend of the unimportant and all around good guy; the CAD Monkey
ANCFlyer (netAirspace ATC & Founding Member) 16 Apr 22, 10:12Post
paul mcallister wrote:One thing I have noticed is the apparent heavy losses and destruction of armoured vehicles and tanks in particular. Modern hand held portable weapons seem to tear them open like tins of beans.



Speaking from experience, I can tell you that all the hype about the Russian (Soviet) designed T-72 and T-80 tanks is pure bullshit. I have, personally, engaged a few of those 'tin cans' in a fight and they are rolling paperweights, prone to explosion when hit properly (best spot between the turret and the hull) by just about any sort of projectile (explosive or kinetic). {drillsergeant}
LET'S GO BRANDON!!!!
Lucas (netAirspace ATC & Founding Member) 16 Apr 22, 20:03Post
As I've heard it reported, Putin is actually not a threat, so we will no longer be worrying about him. I expect Ukraine to have repelled the invasion and soundly sent the Red Army packing in the next 2-3 months. Putin had no reason for the invasion, and will probably end up executed by his own government.

My admiration for Biden and the American left has grown 15-fold. Our own country's future is in good hands, and now I only worry about countries far away.
captoveur 19 Apr 22, 14:33Post
The shocking thing I am seeing on the internet is the number of people supporting Russia in all this. It's not 0 and many of them appear to be American. I have to do some serious mental gymnastics to get there.

I don't buy that Ukraine is a bunch of Nazis- but that keeps getting harped on.
I like my coffee how I like my women: Black, bitter, and preferably fair trade.
Lucas (netAirspace ATC & Founding Member) 19 Apr 22, 20:20Post
captoveur wrote:The shocking thing I am seeing on the internet is the number of people supporting Russia in all this. It's not 0 and many of them appear to be American. I have to do some serious mental gymnastics to get there.

I don't buy that Ukraine is a bunch of Nazis- but that keeps getting harped on.



They just happen to have actual Nazis, but it's a good talking point. My friend Katia (Ukraine) said that the US' meddling has caused two of the most corrupt countries to fight each other.

It's a fantastic distraction from the fact that we're in an incipient cultural revolution in the US.
DXing 20 Apr 22, 16:37Post
{sigh} Actual 'Nazi's'? Like from WW2? That would be a good talking point. Considering that it's a well-known fact that a lot of Ukrainians actually did support Nazi Germany.

However, the Ukrainian population of western Ukraine, had "little to no loyalty towards the Soviet Union", whose Red Army had seized Ukraine during the Soviet invasion of Poland in September 1939. Nationalists in western Ukraine were among the most enthusiastic Nazi collaborators and hoped that their efforts would enable them to re-establish an independent state.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_collaboration_with_Nazi_Germany

Yeah it's Wikipedia and that's lazy but in this case, it's correct. So not a lot of news there and to be honest, name a nation in the western hemisphere that doesn't have a chapter of Nazi's or Neo-Nazi's within it's borders. Considering that even the youngest WW2 Nazi's would be in their late 80's to middle 90's, not sure how much help they will be in the trenches. Russia claiming that the country is being run by Nazi's is just as ridiculous.

Meanwhile, Germany is now stepping up and offering heavy artillery and ammunition to go with it.

Germany to Help Ukraine With Artillery Ammunition, Training


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-20/germany-to-provide-ukraine-with-rockets-training-for-artillery?srnd=premium

Another line in the story caught my eye...

Germany has made 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) available so that Ukraine can buy what she called “more complex systems that can have a long-term impact.”



I wondered how that compared to what the U.S. has provided...

President Biden today announced an additional $800 million in security assistance to Ukraine, bringing the total U.S. security assistance committed to Ukraine to $1 billion in just the past week, and a total of $2 billion since the start of the Biden Administration.



https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/03/16/fact-sheet-on-u-s-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

What's the difference in percentage of both governments budgets I wonder? Seems like now that the Ukraine is not in danger of being overrun it appears that NATO is more willing to risk Russian anger. Again, better later than never.
What's the point of an open door policy if inside the open door sits a closed mind?
 

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