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Chinese booster set for uncontrolled reentry

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DXing 04 May 21, 04:34Post
Get the hard hats ready. There's a possibility that chunks of the latest Chinese Long March rocket could come down on an inhabited area. Anywhere from just north of New York to just south of New Zealand are in the possible crash area. So maybe a vacation to Canada, Alaska, Siberia, Scandinavia, Iceland, or Antarctica is in order.

China’s 21-ton Long March 5b rocket is orbiting the planet in a path that could lead to the massive vehicle crashing back to Earth within the next few days, experts warn.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/chinas-21-ton-rocket-set-for-uncontrolled-reentry-in-a-few-days/ar-BB1gjpeU
What's the point of an open door policy if inside the open door sits a closed mind?
Queso (netAirspace ATC Tower Chief & Founding Member) 04 May 21, 13:27Post
Sorry, I can't trust a single thing MSN says even if it was happening right outside my front door. We'll see how credible they are with this event, hoping for the best for everyone.
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Mark 04 May 21, 15:09Post
DXing 04 May 21, 16:21Post
Queso, if it was straight MSN reporting I would agree with you. This just comes from their news summary. The actual story was written by the Daily Mail. Here is the link to the story on their site.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9537979/A-21-TON-Chinese-rocket-tumbling-Earth-shower-debris-populated-areas.html
What's the point of an open door policy if inside the open door sits a closed mind?
ShanwickOceanic (netAirspace FAA) 04 May 21, 16:39Post
DXing wrote:The actual story was written by the Daily Mail.

...which no self-respecting Brit would line a bird cage with!

Should be safe up here, anyway :)
Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast:
For it is the number of a man; and its number is One hundred threescore and twelve.
GQfluffy (Database Editor & Founding Member) 04 May 21, 18:52Post
If it's my time, it's my time.
Teller of no, fixer of everything, friend of the unimportant and all around good guy; the CAD Monkey
DXing 04 May 21, 19:10Post
JLAmber (netAirspace ATC & Founding Member) 04 May 21, 20:20Post
Chances of being hit by this are so remote there are only two recorded instances of something less likely happening to a human:

The lady in Canada who got hit by lightning on her way to buy a lottery ticket, survived but forgot her numbers so put some totally random numbers on and won.
The Australian chap who popped outside to see why his dog was barking only for a meteor to land in his cup of coffee.

I'll take those odds.
A million great ideas...
bearnard95 05 May 21, 10:27Post
It`s a bit strange to hear that. These parts must be large, otherwise, these parts will just burn down in the atmosphere as it usually happends. If these parts really fall on Earth, it can cause a lot of issues for the space company and for China
DXing 05 May 21, 11:36Post
Parts of Columbia rained down on east Texas and western Louisiana in 2003. This object is only slightly smaller than that and probably won't have as much velocity as the Space Shuttle did at re-entry so the heat resistant parts of the engine most likely will make it to Earth. Obviously the whole thing won't come down intact or even in pieces the size of Pan Am 103, but getting hit by even a piece the size of a juice glass with that kind of velocity can do some real damage.

As JLAmber mentions, the odds of being under the debris shower are extremely small but the chances of it hitting something man made are a bit higher. When the Space Shuttle broke up on re-entry there were a few structures that got hit but no person got touched and there were a lot of pieces on the ground. Hopefully, like one of it's sister boosters it will come down along one of the many watery paths along its re-entry path.
What's the point of an open door policy if inside the open door sits a closed mind?
bhmbaglock 05 May 21, 12:14Post
DXing wrote:Parts of Columbia rained down on east Texas and western Louisiana in 2003. This object is only slightly smaller than that and probably won't have as much velocity as the Space Shuttle did at re-entry so the heat resistant parts of the engine most likely will make it to Earth. Obviously the whole thing won't come down intact or even in pieces the size of Pan Am 103, but getting hit by even a piece the size of a juice glass with that kind of velocity can do some real damage.

As JLAmber mentions, the odds of being under the debris shower are extremely small but the chances of it hitting something man made are a bit higher. When the Space Shuttle broke up on re-entry there were a few structures that got hit but no person got touched and there were a lot of pieces on the ground. Hopefully, like one of it's sister boosters it will come down along one of the many watery paths along its re-entry path.


Columbia was well into planned deceleration when it broke up, this will likely be going faster - that's somewhat a good thing from the POV of burning things up.

What isn't being covered on this is the irresponsibility of not designing a small fuel reserve and engine with re-start capability for a planned de-orbit on a item of this mass. Of course, this is a group that drops stages with highly toxic hypergolics on villages in their own country knowingly so pretty much as expected.
 

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