Strafor Analysis:
www.stratfor.com wrote:
Spain: ETA's Increasing Attacks and Desperation
Summary
Spanish authorities believe the Basque separatist militant group ETA is behind a bombing that occurred July 30 outside a police barracks on the Spanish island of Mallorca. The July 30 attack was the second attack in Spain in as many days — a fact that is likely to draw more attention than a single attack would. As support for ETA dwindles in the Basque autonomous region, the militant group likely will become more violent as it becomes more desperate.
Analysis
Two police officers died when a small improvised explosive device (IED) detonated July 30 outside a police barracks in Palmanova, a small coastal town on the Mediterranean Spanish island of Mallorca, which is a destination popular with European tourists. The relatively limited damage from the blast indicates that the device contained probably no more than 10 pounds of explosives and was attached to a parked police vehicle, most likely near the gas tank. A second device was later found in the same area and defused. Unconfirmed reports said that it was also placed under a police vehicle.
No one has claimed responsibility for the bombing, though authorities suspect the Basque separatist militant group, ETA, carried it out. Indeed, the targeting of police officers and the use of an IED concealed in a car matches previous ETA attacks.
Typically, ETA has not operated in Mallorca, with the noteworthy exception of the group’s 2005 plan to assassinate Spanish King Juan Carlos I there, which was disrupted by police. Although ETA has attacked tourist areas in the past (Malaga in 2002 and Madrid’s Callao Square in 2000) the July 30 attack was not specifically against a tourist target, though it was in a popular tourist area. Nonetheless, Mallorca’s tourism industry is likely to suffer as a side-effect of the bombing. The Spanish government responded to the bombing by temporarily shutting down Mallorca’s ports and airports — including the Palma de Mallorca airport, the second-busiest in Spain, which sees more than 90,000 passengers travel through each day during tourist season — to search for the attackers.
The July 30 attack was the second attack in Spain in as many days. Suspected ETA militants have clustered attacks within a two-day period twice in the past year (see the timeline below). The attackers likely are using this tactic to maximize exposure in the press, since consecutive attacks generally garner more attention than single isolated attacks.
And garnering more attention will become more important to ETA as time passes. The demographics and political climate are changing in Basque country, and STRATFOR has noted that as support for the ETA dries up in the Basque autonomous region the militant group is likely to become more desperate and more violent. As Basque country grows more politically moderate, ETA will be left with only the most extreme members, who could very well deviate from the common ETA practices of avoiding civilians, calling attacks in ahead of time and conducting attacks in the middle of the night when casualties are less likely.
ETA attacks in the past year
* Aug. 17, 2008: Multiple explosive devices were detonated in Andalusia on the south coast of Spain after an anonymous caller told authorities that ETA had planted bombs in the area.
* Sept. 21, 2008: A car bomb exploded in Vitoria after an anonymous phone call warned of an attack.
* Sept. 21, 2008: Suspected ETA militants threw Molotov cocktails at a police station in Ondarroa, injuring 10 people.
* Sept. 22, 2008: A car bomb exploded outside a military school in Catabria region, killing one soldier and wounding another.
* Oct. 4, 2008: An explosive device exploded outside a courtroom in Tolosa following a warning call from ETA.
* Oct. 25, 2008: Molotov cocktails were thrown at a train station in Amorebieta (near Berriz), harming no one.
* Oct. 25, 2008: An explosion at a railway station in Berriz caused material damage, but no one was injured.
* Oct. 30, 2008: A car bomb exploded at the University of Navarra in Pamplona, injuring 17.
* Dec. 3, 2008: Gunmen shot and killed a man in the Basque town of Azpeitia.
* Dec. 31, 2008: An explosive device fitted to a car detonated at the regional broadcasting network headquarters in Bilbao.
* Jan. 16: Police defused two explosive devices near a television tower.
* Feb. 9: An explosive device detonated in Madrid, causing physical damage but harming no one.
* Feb. 23: An explosive device detonated outside the headquarters of the Basque Socialist Party in Lazkao, following a warning call from ETA.
* March 26: An explosive device detonated outside the home of a businessman in Basque country.
* May 6: An explosive device detonated near a communications station in Cantabria region, causing only material damage.
* June 19: An explosive device killed a Spanish policeman as he was leaving for work in Arrigorriaga.
* June 20: A bus was the target of an arson attack in the Basque city of San Sebastian.
* July 10: An explosive device was detonated outside a Basque socialist party office in the Basque town of Durango.
* July 29: An explosive-laden van detonated outside Civil Guard barracks in Burgos.
* July 30: An explosive device placed under a police patrol vehicle detonated, killing two officers.
