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Why Was There No Employee Shortage In 2019?

Everything that would not belong anywhere else.
 

DXing 16 Mar 22, 11:27Post
I keep wondering, how was it in 2019 that businesses had no problem with staffing (for the most part) compared to 2022 where there are massive amounts of help wanted signs and sign on bonuses being offered (here in the U.S.)? The covid scare is largely over with, it has regressed to a point where it is serious, but generally not considered the civilization ending threat it was first thought to possibly be.

So what happened to all the people who were gainfully employed in 2019 when you would occasionally see help wanted signs but no one was offering huge sign on bonuses or "interview today, work tomorrow" signs. Any covid relief money that an individual was getting has mostly played out. So where are all these people who were working before at? Could it be that anyone who was retirement eligible did just that and has not returned?

I was an example of that. I took an early out because the nature of the job location as well as work environment had changed to such a degree that it just wasn't going to be any fun going to work anymore. There was also a question of whether our retirement benefits might be in jeopardy and being so close to retirement age, I didn't feel like gambling with them.

I have since returned to the workforce with another company for a variety of reasons. Am I an outlier at my tender age of 62? I know my wife retired and has not gone back to work. But she is about the only one I know of that left her job when the business closed due to the pandemic and did not return to the workforce (her place of employment did not survive the lockdowns).

So, any ideas of where all the people have gone?
What's the point of an open door policy if inside the open door sits a closed mind?
GQfluffy (Database Editor & Founding Member) 16 Mar 22, 18:34Post
Ha.

This won't get political at all.

I'll watch in fascination none the less.
Teller of no, fixer of everything, friend of the unimportant and all around good guy; the CAD Monkey
JLAmber (netAirspace ATC & Founding Member) 16 Mar 22, 21:52Post
DXing wrote:So, any ideas of where all the people have gone?


One factor is definitely suicide. The suicide rate in the UK, for example, has increased by 207% over the last two years, according to figures from charities in the field. Death inquiries suggest that figure is ludicrously conservative - the inquests for 2021 will not be completed by the end of 2022 in my old home town. The longest wait previously was less than 4 months. Pensioner suicides are unheard of, suicides among children very rare, so the majority of people who take their own lives are of working age. In the Netherlands people are far more open about such things and there is an admission here that there has been a recent jump in the rate of suicide from 0.01% of the population annually to around 0.04%. The UK still state a rate of 0.0114% of the population despite the recent huge increases and seem reluctant to publish exact numbers post-2018.

That's a lot of the workforce. Coupled with natural wastage still happening at a time when lockdowns prevented recruitment and an ever-dwindling birth rate meaning fewer new workers entering the workforce, and you can probably explain the vast majority of the shortage. The rest are probably people who have seen the advantages of working for yourself, particularly online, rather than earning money for others for a meagre recompense. And those who have thrown it all in to go sailing the world. There are loads of them, they almost have an IQ between them {grumpy}
A million great ideas...
miamiair (netAirspace FAA) 17 Mar 22, 09:46Post
Some people learned to make do with less. We can't find qualified people to hire. We get some people that come in asking for 20-40% above the going rate. And it gets better, they want it under the table.

The way the pandemic was handled was a goat rope. Politics do come in, but I won't political name names due to sensibility issues, but a lot of this mess could have been averted. Mandates were a load of crap.

Industries that were wrecked:
-Airlines
-Cruise Ships
-Car rentals
-Restaurants
-Hotels & Casinos
-Movie Theaters
-Medical offices
-Retail

Who knows when this will recover, but there are sectors that didn't skip a beat. We were going full tilt boogie in 2020 with only a dip in October-November, other than that, we didn't miss a beat.

And recent events, the fuel issue has hit some pretty hard. I'll still take a mean Tweet and $1.71 gas any day.
And let's get one thing straight. There's a big difference between a pilot and an aviator. One is a technician; the other is an artist in love with flight. — E. B. Jeppesen
ANCFlyer (netAirspace ATC & Founding Member) 17 Mar 22, 10:07Post
I had a really lengthy post and it disappeared - operator error surely.

Here's my nutshell take:

In Illinois, unemployment payments were doubled. Couple that with federal unemployment benefits and no one had an incentive to go back to work. The "Something for Nothing" society in the US is strong and remains so.
LET'S GO BRANDON!!!!
captoveur 18 Mar 22, 20:05Post
I work on a very popular, very expensive, and very highly sought after EMR system called Epic.

Most hospitals required their IT staff to be in house pre-pandemic. This was pretty much industry standard in healthcare because for some reason healthcare insists on hiring within itself for IT work- instead of hiring IT industry people to do IT work- but that's another rant.

The pandemic showed that people can work almost as effectively at home as in an office (I have issues with that, but i don't wear a suit to work either) Many of us who had worked in real IT knew this. Even old school companies that shunned remote work were forced to adopt it.

Now, instead of competing for people with specific skills with the 2 other hospitals in town with the same system- we are now competing globally. We have lost 75% of our staff- most with 5-10 years experience. We replaced them with people with 0 experience. I also got a 25% raise, and I could still do better if I shopped a bit. We have suffered a major brain drain, and things we used to do in a day, now take months.

My wife works for the VA. The pandemic, cured their office space issues. She works from home 3 days a week seeing patients by video. They also now hire providers located all over the country to work at whatever VA and they don't have to relocate. It makes for craptastic healthcare but this has become the standard industry-wide.

The pandemic forcing remote work has totally changed the landscape. A lot of people in the service industry left for more stable employment in a different industry so its damn near impossible to find a competent bartender, waiter, or professional cook right now. Even things like live music performers have left to go do other things. Going out somewhere to eat where I expect to pay north of $100 a person after wine has become hit or miss- So I just don't do it.

Government hand outs showed people they don't need to be treated as slaves. Low paying jobs like housekeeping at a hotel has almost ceased to exist (I really miss daily housekeeping at a hotel) The pay in these fields either has to change and costs to the consumer have to adjust, or they will just completely cease to exist.
I like my coffee how I like my women: Black, bitter, and preferably fair trade.
DXing 20 Mar 22, 14:35Post
All good reasons but...

JLAmber wrote:One factor is definitely suicide.


There would have to have been a serious uptick in suicides to even make a dent in the workforce to be noticeable. Not saying it hasn't contributed, but to what percentage?

Miamiair wrote:Some people learned to make do with less.


This is true. I know I have. I'm doing essentially 40-50% of my old job, while making 66% less. I worked one overtime shift and when I saw how little reward there was compared to my old job, I've never volunteered again. If they call and need help I will oblige but it makes me feel a little cheap to just do it voluntarily. The saving grace here is that I'm not having to run essentially 2 households since I was commuting to and staying in the town where the job was in an apartment.

ANCFlyer wrote:In Illinois, unemployment payments were doubled.


Also true, but haven't those payments ended? My wife was actually making money when she went on unemployment with what the State was paying plus the Federal subsidy. But my impression was all that ended months ago. If so, what's keeping a person that was using those funds going?

captoveur wrote:The pandemic forcing remote work has totally changed the landscape.


This is also true. I work from home now and there is no "return to the office" in the near future as far as I can discern and when brought up with my boss, he does see it anytime soon either.

Still, the folks that worked at the fast food places, cleaned the hotel rooms, and staffed innumerable service jobs can't all have suddenly struck crypto gold and become financially independent. Nor have they suddenly garnered a 2 or 4 year degree and moved on up in the world. I'd be interested to know what happened to the majority of them.
What's the point of an open door policy if inside the open door sits a closed mind?
captoveur 22 Mar 22, 13:16Post
We did lose hundreds of thousands of people in the US but that's like saying Hitler was a vegetarian. It's true, but it doesn't even begin to tell the story.

A lot of those people would have died anyway- they just ended up with COVID on their death certificate.

A lot of those people were so chronically ill they weren't part of the labor force.

If you were remotely healthy, COVID wasn't likely to kill you. You got sick, you recovered, you went back to your job.
I like my coffee how I like my women: Black, bitter, and preferably fair trade.
GQfluffy (Database Editor & Founding Member) 22 Mar 22, 22:42Post
I'd have to look at the population numbers to confirm this but with the Baby Boomer generation retiring (albeit some going back to work), do the Gen Xers, Millennials and whatever else is coming up behind, have the population numbers to replace the size of the Baby Boomer population?

Again, haven't looked up population sizes vs workforce population sizes...maybe do that later tonight.

captoveur wrote:Government hand outs showed people they don't need to be treated as slaves.


Not even sure it's government handouts. My industry didn't slow down at all; in fact we're busier than ever. Couple that with the fact that my field refused to give pay raises in 2020 while our profit margin skyrocketed caused quite a few coworkers across the country to go to other fields, areas of expertise, etc. Things have changed this year but we're still being pushed to work 60 hour work weeks given our workload and promises made further up the food chain to clients....there just isn't enough of us to handle what is coming in.

We have 180 positions open in a 11,000 people sized firm in the US just for Power Delivery.

In the last 2 months, company wide, we've received around 50 resumes for them. Our recruiting department's budget has doubled, or so we were told in a CEO update.

Where the people are....I just don't know.

Supposedly the unemployment rate is 3.8% nation wide. Something just doesn't make sense.
Teller of no, fixer of everything, friend of the unimportant and all around good guy; the CAD Monkey
ANCFlyer (netAirspace ATC & Founding Member) 23 Mar 22, 13:07Post
GQfluffy wrote:Supposedly the unemployment rate is 3.8% nation wide. Something just doesn't make sense.



RE-Employment rate . . . . . . liberals would like you to believe they're making jobs, but thats bullshit.

RE-Employment rate . . . .
LET'S GO BRANDON!!!!
DXing 23 Mar 22, 17:55Post
ANCFlyer wrote:
GQfluffy wrote:Supposedly the unemployment rate is 3.8% nation wide. Something just doesn't make sense.



RE-Employment rate . . . . . . liberals would like you to believe they're making jobs, but thats bullshit.

RE-Employment rate . . . .


{check} {check} {check}

It drives me up a wall when any government official or tv talking head says that this administration and Congress has "created" jobs. 99.9% of these jobs are jobs coming back because of their crazy lock downs and something for nothing government programs. They weren't gone because of a financial crisis, they were gone or in hiatus because of government.
What's the point of an open door policy if inside the open door sits a closed mind?
Fumanchewd 23 Mar 22, 21:33Post
I was in the waiting room of a 121 carrier last week waiting for a meeting and a job applicant (in his 20's) came in wearing sandals and a tshirt with shorts to talk to the hiring manager. The receptionist told him it would be a 20 minute wait so he took off.

{old git mode} The younger generation thinks they are entitled to the best jobs and don't have to work their way up, so they quit quickly when dissatisfied and are very picky with new jobs. {/old git mode}

One can say that every generation states that about the previous, but I disagree, there is a noticeable indifference and resentment concerning working with the new 16-30 generation. Speaking to employers around the country I hear them state the same thing over and over and over. They hire groups of people to train only to have them all quit after a few weeks.
"Give us a kiss, big tits."
ANCFlyer (netAirspace ATC & Founding Member) 24 Mar 22, 09:20Post
DXing wrote: {check} {check} {check}

It drives me up a wall when any government official or tv talking head says that this administration and Congress has "created" jobs. 99.9% of these jobs are jobs coming back because of their crazy lock downs and something for nothing government programs. They weren't gone because of a financial crisis, they were gone or in hiatus because of government.


Emphasis mine.

The current administration has created NOTHING. FFS, it's one of the best snowjobs I've ever seen, and people buy this bullshit. /Soapbox Off.

fumanchewd wrote:{old git mode} The younger generation thinks they are entitled to the best jobs and don't have to work their way up, so they quit quickly when dissatisfied and are very picky with new jobs. {/old git mode}


Yes, and yes again. Millenial little shits think they can walk into a $100K job, age 22, with a degree in professional creative basket weaving 101 from Podunk Uni because they actually got to an interview on time even though they were slightly delayed by the barrista at Starfucks screwing up their $9 coffee order . . . . FFS.
LET'S GO BRANDON!!!!
FlyingAce (netAirspace ATC & Founding Member) 27 Mar 22, 18:14Post
ANCFlyer wrote:age 22

That's Gen Z you're thinking of. We Millennial little shits are well into our 30's now.
Money can't buy happiness; but it can get you flying, which is pretty much the same.
Lucas (netAirspace ATC & Founding Member) 07 May 22, 15:38Post
Fumanchewd wrote:
One can say that every generation states that about the previous, but I disagree, there is a noticeable indifference and resentment concerning working with the new 16-30 generation. Speaking to employers around the country I hear them state the same thing over and over and over. They hire groups of people to train only to have them all quit after a few weeks.



I received a controller (they just send anyone who will deign to show up, so I have no say in who arrives) recently who was like that. He had one facility under his belt. One. On the very first day, he told me that he'd "accept Thur/Fri off," but would "prefer to also have Saturdays off." This was to allow him to go to Yu-Gi-Oh (sp?) card tournaments and to play online with his friends.

He then said that after he was rated, he understood if his trainer might need to pick one of the days he'd prefer, which was fine with him as long as he could work the shifts with the least traffic.

I was flabbergasted. Kid went on in training to be totally lazy, cocky, full of lip, and ultimately I summarily terminated him. He got picked up at another tower somehow, and I got a call from the ATM there just yesterday asking me, "What the f**k is wrong with the kids we're getting these days?"

This manager had called the airport to find out my number just so he could ask, as he'd had a string of kids like this. Moreover, he'd done some digging into this kid specifically, and found out that he'd lied about his CTO (controller credential thingy) to make it seem like he was from a busy place when he wasn't...in fact, he'd never even gotten a flight data/clearance delivery/ground control rating.

In conference calls with another ATC entity I interact with, they're having the same problem with their off-the-street new hires, and the ATC performance is cruddy as a result. One supervisor told me that the young controller, when he was directed to quit giving handoffs so early (massive inefficiency, less safety given the airspace and procs), literally told him to his face,

"Fuck off."

That was it. And then the union backed him up and said we can't be expecting them to be like the previous generation, and that they all need time.

My wife has been asking me to get out of ATC, and this is partially the reason. We just cycle through garbage, wasting time and energy (and adding extra risk into the system) training new hires, only to have them quit at 50% of the allotted time, or quit during EDIT extension 3. It really sucks, because it keeps us all at mandatory overtime, no ability to take vacation, etc. During peak season, when you're alone and coordinating CFR/GDP/GS crap, answering all the phones, and working everything combined, with the pseudo-TRACON down the tubes, it really is enough to burn you out. (Mostly due to frustration and anger.)
miamiair (netAirspace FAA) 09 May 22, 14:40Post
The kids coming out of aviation schools is becoming crap. No work ethic, they all want to be on their phones watchin Tik-Tok.

The dumbing down and lack of respect for authority is taking its toll.
And let's get one thing straight. There's a big difference between a pilot and an aviator. One is a technician; the other is an artist in love with flight. — E. B. Jeppesen
ShyFlyer (Founding Member) 16 May 22, 02:01Post
There's similar issues in law enforcement, where the youngin's are increasingly self-righteous, entitled (whatya mean I have to work weekends?), and expecting to be handed a good eval because "they tried." Not all of them are that way, fortunately, but there are enough that make training officer's hair turn gray sooner.


On the other hand, some of the labor shortage blame may be on the employer side as well, depending on the situation. I applied for a job in airport operations back in January. The job duties are remarkably similar to what I do currently in a non-airport environment. I didn't get the job. The job announcement has since closed, and reopened, at least twice since then and, as of today, is currently open. The only thing I can find that got my application rejected is the lack of industry-specific experience (a PPL doesn't count, apparently, but working the line at an FBO does) and an expensive piece of trade association paper.

The job is open still/again after five months because the employer either cant find, or retain, employees. Some of the experience and education requirements could be reevaluated and eliminated, but likely won't (gov bureaucracy). This same employer requires two years of experience of painting lines on pavement to work as an entry level painter of lines on pavement.

I don't feel I was entitled to the job, but I do feel that I am a strong candidate for an interview at least. I could've made my case as to how my experience applies to the job. Nah, working at an FBO waving at planes, throwing bags, and pouring coffee is a better use of my time for the next two years...assuming I survive the burn-out from my primary job.
Make Orwell fiction again.
 

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