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Coronavirus: Civil Aviation Impact

All about Airlines and Airliners.
 

Zak (netAirspace FAA) 19 Apr 20, 10:12Post
The days for the A380 and the 747 were counted before coronavirus already. The pandemic will only shorten the count.

If Boeing will get the 737 MAX sorted remains a mystery. Too much has gone wrong at Boeing that urgently needs fixing. That's why I wrote "if", not "when".

The pandemic opened the door for a federal aid program for the swaying giant. Maybe that will help them getting back on track, but a lot more than financial aid and a few fixes to the MAX will be required for that. Boeing's situation reminds me a lot of Volkswagen these days. It's the rotten company culture that needs fixing, and that will be a lot harder to fix than the issues with the MAX.

A sustainable concept for a new MOM aircraft could be one of the things that would help. Sure, right now the demand isn't there. But developing a new concept now won't lead to aircraft being produced tomorrow. Now is actually a good time to get the ball rolling - if they can scrape up the $$$.

Flying won't revert to its glamour days. If anything, the greyhoundization of air travel will be accelerated by the pandemic. Once the markets recover and the increasing passenger numbers will hit against the reduced capacities, air fares will spike. But that won't lead to more service or an improved onboard experience.

We may see a few new airlines entering the market in 2021/2022. There will be a lot of rather modern aircraft available on the second hand market, and a fresh operator that is not tasked with recovering from any 2020 losses will be in a good position to compete with the established players.

None of them will sport a concept of "offering more luxury for the same price", though, but rather follow a "same misery for a lower fare" approach.

{twocents}
Ideology: The mistaken belief that your beliefs are neither beliefs nor mistaken.
DXing 19 Apr 20, 18:54Post
As to flying reverting back to its glamour days..what I meant was the days when flying was rather expensive and trips were planned out quite a bit in advance rather than deciding on Tuesday to head to Vegas for the weekend and being able to book a hotel and cheap airfare at the last minute. Also like back in the late 50's to the late 60's there was food, real food, not the bob junk they have today. With the reduced demand could an airline attract passengers by offering a better class of food service in coach?

I guess one can dream....skip forward to 18:50

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaUT8xEl67Q

Also, I forgot a question.

Does this down turn spell the end of the "pilot shortage" for the foreseeable future? Will reduced schedules sort out the problem of finding qualified pilots for at least the next few years?
What's the point of an open door policy if inside the open door sits a closed mind?
ShyFlyer (Founding Member) 20 Apr 20, 15:30Post
DXing wrote:Does this down turn spell the end of the "pilot shortage" for the foreseeable future? Will reduced schedules sort out the problem of finding qualified pilots for at least the next few years?

Yes. Furloughs are going to happen eventually. I read somewhere that some airlines are offering early-out incentives to their senior employees but even those moves won't be enough to prevent the inevitable furloughs.
Make Orwell fiction again.
ShanwickOceanic (netAirspace FAA) 21 Apr 20, 09:45Post
Virgin screwed?

Virgin Australia has confirmed it has entered voluntary administration - making it Australia's first big corporate casualty of the coronavirus pandemic.

The country's second-largest carrier cut almost all flights last month following wide-spread travel bans.

It was already struggling with a long-term A$5bn (£2.55bn; $3.17bn) debt.

The airline is now seeking new buyers and investors, after failing to get a loan from Australia's government.

Virgin Australia chief executive Paul Scurrah said: "Our decision today is about securing the future of the Virgin Australia Group and emerging on the other side of the Covid-19 crisis.

"Australia needs a second airline and we are determined to keep flying."

Meanwhile, Sir Richard Branson - whose Virgin group is a part-owner of Virgin Australia - has offered a Caribbean island as collateral to help get a UK government bailout of Virgin Atlantic.

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-52363428
My friend and I applied for airline jobs in Australia, but they didn't Qantas.
miamiair (netAirspace FAA) 22 Apr 20, 15:37Post
Austrian Airlines to retire Airbus A319 fleet

Austrian Airlines will sell 20 of its 80 aircraft by 2022, reducing its fleet by 25%, to alleviate the weight of the air transport crisis linked to the coronavirus pandemic.

The carrier had already announced earlier in April 2020, that 18 Dash-8 Q400s would be retired. In addition, it now plans on letting go of its whole fleet of seven Airbus A319s as well as three of its six Boeing 767-300ERs “which are among the oldest aircraft in the fleet with an average age of 28 years”. The reduction of capacity is planned to be about 20%.

Link
And let's get one thing straight. There's a big difference between a pilot and an aviator. One is a technician; the other is an artist in love with flight. — E. B. Jeppesen
airtrainer 22 Apr 20, 17:00Post
IATA Head Says Social Distancing Will End Cheap Travel
The Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Alexandre de Juniac, believes that social distancing will end cheap travel. This is according to statements made at a briefing on April 21st. His rationale is that, with fewer seats available, it means that airlines will have to increase prices to turn a profit.

Link
Grounded...
airtrainer 22 Apr 20, 17:40Post
Here we go...

American Airlines has increased transatlantic checked baggage fees. The higher fees only apply to basic economy tickets on or after April 21st. This move does make some sense for the airline. Here’s why.

Link
Grounded...
ShyFlyer (Founding Member) 23 Apr 20, 04:52Post
Traffic levels at DEN(via KDVR Fox 31):

Screen Shot 2020-04-22 at 10.46.57 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-04-22 at 10.46.57 PM.png (63.7 KiB) Viewed 2746 times


Driving in and around the area, the lack of traffic, both ground and air, is readily apparent. {vsad}
Make Orwell fiction again.
Fumanchewd 23 Apr 20, 22:32Post
We are an aviation supply chain vendor and our business is down over 75%. Some airlines have shut down almost everything, we are being told by US majors that many are flying between 5% and 15% of previous routes. Account managers who were considered elite pulling in millions in sales per larger airline account a month are seeing zero sales now. Many of the big US airlines have a spending freeze except in AOG situations.

What's odd to me is that even our cargo and online shopping carriers seemed to have slowed down a bit despite the fact that they are flying much more. Nobody knows what to expect and everyone is being cautious even if their flying has increased.

Most of our sales are to shops, brokers, and other 3rd party players right now, airline sales are few.

Overall, I feel as though it won't take long to rebound, but I feel sorry for the small shops that can't afford to go for 3 months to a year with significantly less revenue. This will ultimately be a brush fire for aviation. It will take out quite a few little guys with a few big trees (Norwegian and Virgin Australia as we know it) but things will be back to normal soon. This will be a great opportunity for larger company's with liquidity to eat up everything.

"The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."

We have acquired a number of aircraft tear-downs (777s) and are in negotiations to tear-down some 767's and some others too. Many many airlines are looking to retire aircraft now. If we can survive this, we will have a lot of needed inventory. Additionally, the biggest companies have dumped a bunch of their older and smaller material in fire-sales, and they are buying up a bunch of $$$ systems (landing gears, APU's, engine components, etc) at very low prices, pitting desperate sellers against each other. They have come to us for quotes and we give them discounted prices, a $110k part last week we are offering for $90k, only to be told we have to beat someone else who is offering to sell for $40k. They don't even care what quality or age of the tags/certs are, they just want the lowest price, they can put fresh tags on them for cheap right now anyway.

I feel as though the noose will be gone in a month or two, and the recovery might hurt for a year or so though.
"Give us a kiss, big tits."
halls120 (Plank Owner) 24 Apr 20, 14:35Post
airtrainer wrote:IATA Head Says Social Distancing Will End Cheap Travel
The Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Alexandre de Juniac, believes that social distancing will end cheap travel. This is according to statements made at a briefing on April 21st. His rationale is that, with fewer seats available, it means that airlines will have to increase prices to turn a profit.

Link


He's probably right. If they increase prices too much, however, that will drive people away. I think many people aren't going to be willing to board aircraft until there is an effective vaccine.
At home in the PNW and loving it
fiatstilojtd 27 Apr 20, 14:51Post
Lugano Airport in Switzerland, or to be more precise the state-owned company which operated it, called Lasa, filed for bankruptcy.

https://www.aero.de/news-35123/Flughafe ... lvent.html
Non vitae sed scholae discimus
ShanwickOceanic (netAirspace FAA) 27 Apr 20, 15:47Post
AF-KL secures at least 9bn€ in funding

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52420312
Last edited by Zak on 28 Apr 20, 08:52, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Fixed the figure - billion, not million :)
My friend and I applied for airline jobs in Australia, but they didn't Qantas.
Fumanchewd 28 Apr 20, 17:49Post
The military is having a huge flyover of PHX in the next week, supposedly taking thermal imaging of the population. I didn't even know they could do that but have heard it from a good source.
"Give us a kiss, big tits."
ShanwickOceanic (netAirspace FAA) 28 Apr 20, 18:54Post
Hmm. I'll believe that one when I see it.
My friend and I applied for airline jobs in Australia, but they didn't Qantas.
Fumanchewd 28 Apr 20, 19:39Post
Lol, there will be a flyover but I was given wrong information about the thermal stuff. It didn't really make sense to me either.

Just a flyover to honor medical professionals, which is cool.

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/luke- ... r-on-may-1
"Give us a kiss, big tits."
GQfluffy (Database Editor & Founding Member) 28 Apr 20, 23:17Post
{cheeky}

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N98131?fbclid=IwAR2lt_xfvHImaYciijR8sFaPq9Ri7lFP09kjFparh61yppc3OWwkr9Fn-a8
Teller of no, fixer of everything, friend of the unimportant and all around good guy; the CAD Monkey
airtrainer 03 May 20, 22:32Post
ICAO Forecasts 1.5 Billion Fewer International Passengers In 2020

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has been monitoring the impact of COVID-19 since February. On 30th April, it issued a prediction for how the industry would be hit by the end of the year. Predictions by the ICAO indicate that international air travel demand could drop by 1.5bn passengers at the end of the year as a worst-case. The organization has also made forecasts for airport traffic, revenues, and seat capacity.

full article
Grounded...
ShanwickOceanic (netAirspace FAA) 04 May 20, 18:50Post
AF's loan contingent on killing off some domestic routes, because bunnies.

A French government plan to rescue Air France is contingent on the carrier scrapping some domestic flights, the country's economy minister has said.

Air France should become "the most environmentally respectful airline", Bruno Le Maire told France Inter radio.

[...]

"It is obvious that today a number of domestic routes are no longer justified," he said, without giving further details.

"When you can travel by train in less than two and a half hours, there is no justification for taking a plane."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52527517
My friend and I applied for airline jobs in Australia, but they didn't Qantas.
ShanwickOceanic (netAirspace FAA) 05 May 20, 22:24Post
Don't know what to make of this one.

An investigation by BBC News Arabic has analysed flight tracking data and open source footage which shows how Iran's largest airline - Mahan Air - continued to fly while government flight bans were in place, and contributed to the spread of Covid-19 in the Middle East.

Mahan Air ran hundreds of flights to and from Iran, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Syria between late January and the end of March. All these countries gave Mahan Air permission to land. And they did so while their own bans on routine flights from Iran were in place.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-middl ... iddle-east
My friend and I applied for airline jobs in Australia, but they didn't Qantas.
ShanwickOceanic (netAirspace FAA) 18 May 20, 18:50Post
AY planning to restore some European and long-haul flights from July:

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finn ... y/11357574

Domestically, it isn't such a good picture. There's talk of the suspensions lasting up to a year. Many of these routes were loss-making even with a full international network to feed into.
My friend and I applied for airline jobs in Australia, but they didn't Qantas.
Fumanchewd 22 May 20, 21:18Post
Someone with WN has told me that internally they think they will be at 100% by October, which seems extremely optimistic. 75% or 90% seems more likely and assuming there are no further waves this fall.
"Give us a kiss, big tits."
ShanwickOceanic (netAirspace FAA) 30 Jun 20, 15:35Post
EasyJet says it has begun consultations on plans to close bases at Stansted, Southend and Newcastle.

It follows an announcement by the airline that it may need to reduce staff numbers by up to a third because of the coronavirus pandemic.

The Unite union said nearly 1,300 crew members faced losing their jobs.

Pilots' union Balpa said it had been told by EasyJet that 727 of its UK-based pilots were at risk of redundancy.

That is equivalent to one in three of its pilots, Balpa said.

More: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53239256
My friend and I applied for airline jobs in Australia, but they didn't Qantas.
DXing 01 Jul 20, 17:05Post
Nice to see CLE/IAH flights coming back online. Lot of open seats but its a move in the right direction.
What's the point of an open door policy if inside the open door sits a closed mind?
miamiair (netAirspace FAA) 01 Jul 20, 17:48Post
El Al CEO Gonen Usishkin, ordered all of the company's aircraft to return to Israel. All flights, including both passenger and cargo flights, are cancelled until further notice.

Link
And let's get one thing straight. There's a big difference between a pilot and an aviator. One is a technician; the other is an artist in love with flight. — E. B. Jeppesen
DXing 04 Jul 20, 12:31Post
Looks like I am red listed. No UK for a while for me.

American citizens have landed on a British “red list” for travelers and will be required to quarantine 14 days after entering the country due to the spike in coronavirus cases stateside.


https://www.foxnews.com/world/britain-places-us-travelers-quarantine-red-list

I don't expect it will hurt tourism much more than the virus already has. Even if the U.S. were in the green or amber categories people either don't have the money to travel right now, or don't want to be on a plane for 5+ hours wearing a mask.
What's the point of an open door policy if inside the open door sits a closed mind?
 

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